SITREP

Worldwide tariffs on US imports coming April 1 and Car Attack in Germany Deepens Anti-Immigrant Sentiment in Election Run-Up. Andrew Sheves Good morning. Happy Friday and Happy Valentine’s Day. 🚢 President Trump has ordered trade and commerce officials to design a set of reciprocal tariffs for all countries that impose any form of levy on US imports. These include import taxes but also things like value-added tax (VAT) and other point-of-sale taxes. This is a very broad and complex measure where each country would be subject to reciprocal import duties in addition to commodity duties (such as the proposed 25% tax on copper), hugely complicating supply line cost calculations for US businesses. The tariffs are set to come into force on April 1st, leaving time for bargaining, but businesses are advised to begin preparing for interruption and/or increased costs for all imported goods. [More - Bloomberg] ...

Ukraine 0 - Russia 1 Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇺🇦 Ukraine cannot join NATO and must accept territorial losses, according to the US Secretary of Defense whose comments were closely followed by an announcement by President Trump that he and Russia’s Vladimir Putin had met by phone and agreed to start negotiations on Ukraine’s future. Cut out of discussions, NATO allies and Ukrainian leaders were left shocked at the announcements which concede to two of Russia’s main demands before negotiations begin. [More - Bloomberg] ...

Shell Nigeria Clean Up Criticisms, FCPA Pause and the Slow March Back to Conflict in Gaza Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇳🇬 Shell allegedly ignored repeated warnings about corruption and mismanagement in its $1bn oil pollution clean-up operation in Nigeria’s Ogoniland region. Whistleblowers claim that Shell was aware that the clean-up project was awarding contracts to inexperienced companies, falsifying lab results, and inflating costs. The revelations come as Shell faces a High Court trial in London this week, where 50,000 Ogoniland residents seek compensation for oil spills that occurred between 1989 and 2020. [More - BBC] ...

Gaza ceasefire teeters; Indian forces kill 31 rebels; Cook Islands-China deal sparks tension Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇵🇸 The ceasefire in Gaza is close to collapse as Hamas has suspended hostage transfers, accusing Israel of “violations and its failure to comply with the terms of the agreement.” Israel has responded by placing its military on high alert, while Donald Trump has said that if all hostages are not released by Saturday, the deal should be scrapped. (Note, the deal does not call for all hostages to be released by Saturday but in a phased transfer through March 1.) [Live coverage - BBC] ...

Trade Uncertainty is the New Normal and The API is Live Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday. Prepare for More Trade Uncertainty Last week’s tariffs were over before they started: by Monday evening, both Mexico and Canada had secured 30-day deferrals on President Trump’s threatened import taxes. However, the short-term disruption was real and this was a deferment — the threat to cross-border trade remains. Meanwhile, Trump intends to announce a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports today and is threatening reciprocal tariffs on any country that taxes US imports. [More Bloomberg] And in Europe, leaders are dusting off the anti-coercion instrument (ACI): a trade ‘bazooka’ they devised back in Trump’s first term as a way to hit back at any US levies on EU imports. [More - Politico] ...

ICC Sanctions and Ukraine’s Rare Earth in Trump’s Sights Andrew Sheves ⚖️ The US has sanctioned the International Criminal Court, levying travel and financial restrictions on senior ICC staff and family members. This follows the court’s charges against Israeli politicians last year in connection with the war in Gaza but at the signing, President Trump said any court member who opened up cases against the US or other allies would be similarly sanctioned. These sanctions originated in Congress last year and the US is not a signatory to the ICC charter but Trump’s move further weakens the Court and reinforces the perception that it is only there to pursue criminals from the Global South. [More - BBC] ...

Quiet, too quiet…. Andrew Sheves Good morning. No headlines today. I do have something exciting to announce tomorrow when I’ll be sharing full details on how to access the complete news feed as an API. That way, you’ll be able to have the stories, updates, and stability ratings piped directly into your app, website, and even spreadsheets. More tomorrow. Daily News for Curious Minds Be the smartest person in the room by reading 1440! Dive into 1440, where 4 million Americans find their daily, fact-based news fix. We navigate through 100+ sources to deliver a comprehensive roundup from every corner of the internet – politics, global events, business, and culture, all in a quick, 5-minute newsletter. It’s completely free and devoid of bias or political influence, ensuring you get the facts straight. Subscribe to 1440 today. ...

Shooting in Belgium and Sweden and Trump’s Plan to Occupy Gaza Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇧🇪 Belgian police are looking for two to three gunmen who are on the run in Brussels after a shooting outside a metro station this morning. There were no casualties in the incident at around 06:15 local this morning, but stations were closed, and morning rush hour was disrupted. The men were armed with Klashnokov-style weapons and remain on the loose. [More - BBC] ...

Killing the chickens to frighten the monkeys Andrew Sheves ** In partnership with ** ](https://l.join1440.com/bh?utm_source=beehiiv&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=decis_sitreps_XO7DWEQZLV&utm_content=prospecting_critical_thinkers&_bhiiv=opp_5ec2c2df-c1d8-467d-9427-8e335f9f3f2b_1b75ca79&bhcl_id=f9eba0af-7b0c-4a59-9c3c-6085fb567559_SUBSCRIBER_ID_{{email_address_id}}) Good morning. A commentator on Bloomberg yesterday quoted the proverb “kill the chickens to frighten the monkeys” and explained how Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada are actually a signal to China: ’See how tough I can be on my allies. Now imagine what I could do to you.’ Unfortunately, no matter how you make the monkeys feel, you’ve still killed a few chickens. ...

Tariffs All the Way Down and Musk Targets USAID Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday. Tariffs All the Way Down It was tariffs all the way down in Washington, Ottowa, and Mexico City this weekend as President Trump’s 25% import taxes kicked in, spurring retaliatory measures from Canada and Mexico. Meanwhile, in addition to attacking close allies, 10% tariffs were also levied against Chinese imports. [More - Bloomberg] According to some report, in addition to the tarrifs, de minimus entries and duty drawback rules concerning Chinese imports are being suspended. De minimus rules allow small packages from China to enter the US without duty being paid - this is what the entire dropshipping industry, fast fashion, and half of Amazon stores rely on. So imports to the US are interrupted or more expensive. ...