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Gaza ceasefire teeters; Indian forces kill 31 rebels; Cook Islands-China deal sparks tension Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇵🇸 The ceasefire in Gaza is close to collapse as Hamas has suspended hostage transfers, accusing Israel of “violations and its failure to comply with the terms of the agreement.” Israel has responded by placing its military on high alert, while Donald Trump has said that if all hostages are not released by Saturday, the deal should be scrapped. (Note, the deal does not call for all hostages to be released by Saturday but in a phased transfer through March 1.) [Live coverage - BBC] ...

Trade Uncertainty is the New Normal and The API is Live Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday. Prepare for More Trade Uncertainty Last week’s tariffs were over before they started: by Monday evening, both Mexico and Canada had secured 30-day deferrals on President Trump’s threatened import taxes. However, the short-term disruption was real and this was a deferment — the threat to cross-border trade remains. Meanwhile, Trump intends to announce a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports today and is threatening reciprocal tariffs on any country that taxes US imports. [More Bloomberg] And in Europe, leaders are dusting off the anti-coercion instrument (ACI): a trade ‘bazooka’ they devised back in Trump’s first term as a way to hit back at any US levies on EU imports. [More - Politico] ...

ICC Sanctions and Ukraine’s Rare Earth in Trump’s Sights Andrew Sheves ⚖️ The US has sanctioned the International Criminal Court, levying travel and financial restrictions on senior ICC staff and family members. This follows the court’s charges against Israeli politicians last year in connection with the war in Gaza but at the signing, President Trump said any court member who opened up cases against the US or other allies would be similarly sanctioned. These sanctions originated in Congress last year and the US is not a signatory to the ICC charter but Trump’s move further weakens the Court and reinforces the perception that it is only there to pursue criminals from the Global South. [More - BBC] ...

Quiet, too quiet…. Andrew Sheves Good morning. No headlines today. I do have something exciting to announce tomorrow when I’ll be sharing full details on how to access the complete news feed as an API. That way, you’ll be able to have the stories, updates, and stability ratings piped directly into your app, website, and even spreadsheets. More tomorrow. Daily News for Curious Minds Be the smartest person in the room by reading 1440! Dive into 1440, where 4 million Americans find their daily, fact-based news fix. We navigate through 100+ sources to deliver a comprehensive roundup from every corner of the internet – politics, global events, business, and culture, all in a quick, 5-minute newsletter. It’s completely free and devoid of bias or political influence, ensuring you get the facts straight. Subscribe to 1440 today. ...

Shooting in Belgium and Sweden and Trump’s Plan to Occupy Gaza Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇧🇪 Belgian police are looking for two to three gunmen who are on the run in Brussels after a shooting outside a metro station this morning. There were no casualties in the incident at around 06:15 local this morning, but stations were closed, and morning rush hour was disrupted. The men were armed with Klashnokov-style weapons and remain on the loose. [More - BBC] ...

Killing the chickens to frighten the monkeys Andrew Sheves ** In partnership with ** ](https://l.join1440.com/bh?utm_source=beehiiv&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=decis_sitreps_XO7DWEQZLV&utm_content=prospecting_critical_thinkers&_bhiiv=opp_5ec2c2df-c1d8-467d-9427-8e335f9f3f2b_1b75ca79&bhcl_id=f9eba0af-7b0c-4a59-9c3c-6085fb567559_SUBSCRIBER_ID_{{email_address_id}}) Good morning. A commentator on Bloomberg yesterday quoted the proverb “kill the chickens to frighten the monkeys” and explained how Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada are actually a signal to China: ’See how tough I can be on my allies. Now imagine what I could do to you.’ Unfortunately, no matter how you make the monkeys feel, you’ve still killed a few chickens. ...

Tariffs All the Way Down and Musk Targets USAID Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday. Tariffs All the Way Down It was tariffs all the way down in Washington, Ottowa, and Mexico City this weekend as President Trump’s 25% import taxes kicked in, spurring retaliatory measures from Canada and Mexico. Meanwhile, in addition to attacking close allies, 10% tariffs were also levied against Chinese imports. [More - Bloomberg] According to some report, in addition to the tarrifs, de minimus entries and duty drawback rules concerning Chinese imports are being suspended. De minimus rules allow small packages from China to enter the US without duty being paid - this is what the entire dropshipping industry, fast fashion, and half of Amazon stores rely on. So imports to the US are interrupted or more expensive. ...

Storms approach California, Tariff-eve for Canada and Mexico, UNRWA Shuts and DC Airport Disaster Andrew Sheves ☔️ An atmospheric river approaching America’s west coast is expected to cause flooding and landslides. Recent wildfires have destroyed significant numbers of trees and undergrowth, which increases the chances of mudslides and runoffs in these areas. [More - BBC] 🛑 President Trump confirmed his intention to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico beginning February 1 (Saturday). He was less definitive on China, so it is unclear if the proposed 10% tax would be levied on Chinese imports. [More - Bloomberg] ...

M23 reinforce hold in the DRC and al-Sharaa named interim President in Syria. Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇨🇩 Fighting between the M23 rebels and the Congolese military has intensified in the Goma region of Eastern Congo. Frustration and anger have also boiled over in the capital, Kinshasa, where embassies have been attacked by locals, blaming Europe and the US for supporting Rwanda, which is believed to be sponsoring the rebels. Regional peace talks are scheduled by DCR PresidentPresident Félix Tshisekedi is refusing to take part. [More - BBC] ...

Crowd surge in India, Trump threatens Taiwan plus the Unintended Consequences of the Transition Kick In Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇮🇳 A crowd surge at a Hindi festival in Northern India raised fears of multiple casualties but early reports are unclear. Up to 100 million people are anticipated at the Kumbh Mela festival in Sangam where devotees gather every 12 years to bathe in the confluence of two sacred rivers [More - BBC] ...