SITREP

Storms approach California, Tariff-eve for Canada and Mexico, UNRWA Shuts and DC Airport Disaster Andrew Sheves ☔️ An atmospheric river approaching America’s west coast is expected to cause flooding and landslides. Recent wildfires have destroyed significant numbers of trees and undergrowth, which increases the chances of mudslides and runoffs in these areas. [More - BBC] 🛑 President Trump confirmed his intention to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico beginning February 1 (Saturday). He was less definitive on China, so it is unclear if the proposed 10% tax would be levied on Chinese imports. [More - Bloomberg] ...

M23 reinforce hold in the DRC and al-Sharaa named interim President in Syria. Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇨🇩 Fighting between the M23 rebels and the Congolese military has intensified in the Goma region of Eastern Congo. Frustration and anger have also boiled over in the capital, Kinshasa, where embassies have been attacked by locals, blaming Europe and the US for supporting Rwanda, which is believed to be sponsoring the rebels. Regional peace talks are scheduled by DCR PresidentPresident Félix Tshisekedi is refusing to take part. [More - BBC] ...

Crowd surge in India, Trump threatens Taiwan plus the Unintended Consequences of the Transition Kick In Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇮🇳 A crowd surge at a Hindi festival in Northern India raised fears of multiple casualties but early reports are unclear. Up to 100 million people are anticipated at the Kumbh Mela festival in Sangam where devotees gather every 12 years to bathe in the confluence of two sacred rivers [More - BBC] ...

Andrew Sheves Good morning. Apologies for the lack of a SITREP yesterday. The stability ratings are included below. Country Stability Ratings 🇦🇫 Afghanistan is Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania is Weak 🇩🇿 Algeria is Weak 🇦🇩 Andorra is Stable 🇦🇴 Angola is Weak 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda is Stable 🇦🇷 Argentina is Weak 🇦🇲 Armenia is Weak 🇦🇺 Australia is Stable 🇦🇹 Austria is Weak 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan is Weak 🇧🇭 Bahrain is Weak ...

What a Big Deal with China Might Look Like. Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Some thoughts on the US and China. For all of Donald Trump’s railing about China, what he didn’t do this week was highly instructive: he didn’t force through the TikTok divestment or impose tariffs. TikTok may be more of a domestic issue, and perhaps he’s hoping that video-short-addled kids will flock to the GOP in future elections. But a forced divestment — even a short ban — would make Beijing sweat a little. ...

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus **Corrected Friday SITREP: Africa Focus **Corrected What a Big Deal with China Might Look Like. Andrew Sheves Apologies but an earlier version of the SITREP went out with some errors in it. Here’s the corrected version. Good morning and Happy Friday. Some thoughts on the US and China. For all of Donald Trump’s railing about China, what he didn’t do this week was highly instructive: he didn’t force through the TikTok divestment or impose tariffs. ...

Turkey / PKK Ceasefire Rumors and Houthis Suspend Read Sea Attacks Andrew Sheves Good morning. A brief reprieve from the Trump whirlwind… 🇹🇷 The Middle East Institute’s Gönül Tol is reporting that **a deal between the Turkish government and the PKK is planned **that would see the Kurdish group cease military operations on February 15th. In return, there would be an amnesty in Turkey and a redrafting of the constitution to provide greater recognition of the Kurds. The full post follows. ...

Tariff uncertainty, West Bank raids and Troop surge in Columbia. Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🧾 Tariffs remain one of the few issues that President Trump has yet to put into effect after a second frenzied day of activity at the White House. In press conferences, Trump said that 25% levies on Canadian and Mexican imports would begin on February 1st but delays may indicate that there’s hope for some deal before February 1st. Still, there’s no public sign of negotiations, and neither Canada nor Mexico would want to appear weak at the outset of four more years of a Trump White House, so the likelihood of some tariffs seems high. ...

Tusday SITREP: Americas Focus Tusday SITREP: Americas Focus Trump’s Day One EO Blizzard and Palestinians Return to Ruins in Gaza Andrew Sheves Good morning. Before we cover Monday’s frenetic Day One for the incoming Trump administration, some stark images and statistics illustrate the immense challenge that still lies ahead for the Palestinians. 🇵🇸 There are estimates that 92% of housing in Gaza has been destroyed. So, while the current ceasefire allows families to move back into cleared areas, very few have homes to go to. [More - BBC] ...

The rules for Trump 2.0 Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday. Allow me an observation on the cusp of the second Trump Presidency It’s Inauguration Day and DC is full of two kinds of Trump supporters. Billionaires spent the weekend celebrating at black-tie events, anticipating a freer, free market, looser regulation, and a more mercantile approach to everything from lawmaking to foreign policy. Meanwhile, Trump voters who couldn’t stump up millions of dollars in support are tramping around a wet, snowy DC, unable to attend the (now indoors) inauguration. ...