SITREP

Headlines from a busy weekend and a big product update Andrew Sheves Good morning. It was a busy weekend: here are the headlines. South Korea’s Parliament voted to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol for his declaration of martial law two weeks ago. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo takes over as acting president while the impeachment process continues. Courts have 180 days to decide Yopon’s fate. [SOURCE - BBC] Anti-EU candidate Mikheil Kavelashvili was elected president of Georgia, raising fears that the country was being pulled back into Moscow’s orbit. [SOURCE - AP] ...

A Positive Note on Syria and Weekend Long Reads Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. This time last week, I wrote, “Homs will likely fall as quickly as Hama and Aleppo did, likely today or by tomorrow. However, Damascus will be a much tougher fight”. How wrong I was: Damascus fell with very little opposition, if any, and the transition to a caretaker government in Syria has been measured, calm, and nothing short of remarkable. The country has a long, complicated path ahead but the first few days of post-Assad Syria give hope for cautious optimism. ...

Bulgaria and Romania Join Schengen and Turkish Diplomacy in East Africa Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two quick headlines on positive diplomatic developments. Bulgaria and Romania were accepted into the EU’s Schengen visa scheme, which allows visa-free travel around the European Union for residents or visa holders of countries that are members of the scheme. [SOURCE - BBC] Turkey brokered a deal between Somalia and Ethiopia, defusing tensions over Ethiopia’s plan to open a port in the independent Somaliland region. The deal commits both parties to talks to establish improved diplomatic and commercial ties, easing decades-long tensions between the two East African neighbors. [SOURCE - Al Jazeera] ...

Syria transition continues peacefully and wildfire in CA. Andrew Sheves Good morning. The Syrian opposition continues to establish control of the government in coordination with members of the Assad regime, continuing the surprisingly orderly and measured takeover of power. Isreal is continuing to destroy military installations across the country, reportedly hitting almost 500 sites in the last 48 hours. [SOURCE - AL Jazeera] A significant wildfire, named the Franklin Fire, continues to burn in Malibu County CA, a major suburb of Los Angeles. The suburb is popular with celebrities, and many well-known figures are among those being forced to evacuate. [SOURCE - BBC] [SOURCE - CalFire map] ...

Israeli strikes and incursions in Syria as the HTS transition continues Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two headlines from Syria. Israel has conducted over 250 missile strikes around Syria and pushed deeper into the Golan Heights in the last 48 hours, in response to the fall of Bashir al-Assaed and the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) takeover. Israel has described the seizure of territory as a temporary security measure, but governments in the region are describing this as an illegal occupation. [SOURCE - al Jazeera] ...

Syria without Assad, Election Rerun in Romania, and Impeachment Fails in Seoul Andrew Sheves Good morning. It was a monumental weekend in and for the Middle East as the Assad regime fell after 50 years of brutal rule in Syria. After a startlingly fast and relatively bloodless sweep of the country by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebels, HTS is now in charge of Damascus and most of Western and central Syria from the Turkish border to Jordan. I was wrong in my assessment on Friday as I anticipated elements of the regime to put up some kind of resistance, but it seems that the majority of the military either surrendered or melted away, allowing the rebels to take Damascus essentially unopposed. ...

The Syrian opposition reaches Homs and weekend long reads Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. One big story to watch this weekend is what happens Syria. Syrian government forces quickly retreated from the city of Hama on Thursday, allowing the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led opposition to quickly take the city. Alawites were seen fleeing the city in advance of the rebels but many others seemed to welcome the rebels. As of Friday morning ET, the opposition forces are now close to the nearby city of Homs, which is the last city between their north base and the capital, Damascus. [BBC Live Tracker] ...

French government collapse, crackdowns in Georgia and bitcoin goes to the moon Andrew Sheves Good morning. The French government collapsed after far-right and far-left parties united in a vote of no confidence, forcing out Prime Minister Michel Barnier. What happens next is unclear. Elections cannot be called until July leaving President Macron to try to establish some form of functional government within the existing Assembly, where the three main groups are riven by differences. [SOURCE and long read - Bloomberg] ...

Martial law in Seoul and a Clash in the South China Sea Andrew Sheves Good morning. Citing vague and unspecific concerns about his political opposition, South Korean President Yoon declared martial law on Tuesday. Six hours of chaos and confusion resulted before Parliament and his cabinet forced him to overturn the decree. Yoon now faces impeachment changes that will go to a vote in Seoul’s parliament on Wednesday. [SOURCE - Bloomberg] ...

Turbulence in Europe and the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is shaky Andrew Sheves Good morning. There are three big stories worth tracking today, but first, it’s worth pulling a few of these together. Comment The macro trend at the moment is increasing turbulence and weakness across Europe through a confluence of factors: internal political wrangling (France, below), economic difficulties (Germany), Russian hybrid warfare (telecoms sabotage, below), and the seeming undoing of the ‘color revolutions’ as eastern european countries drift back towards Moscow (e.g., Georgia). ...