SITREP

French government collapse, crackdowns in Georgia and bitcoin goes to the moon Andrew Sheves Good morning. The French government collapsed after far-right and far-left parties united in a vote of no confidence, forcing out Prime Minister Michel Barnier. What happens next is unclear. Elections cannot be called until July leaving President Macron to try to establish some form of functional government within the existing Assembly, where the three main groups are riven by differences. [SOURCE and long read - Bloomberg] ...

Martial law in Seoul and a Clash in the South China Sea Andrew Sheves Good morning. Citing vague and unspecific concerns about his political opposition, South Korean President Yoon declared martial law on Tuesday. Six hours of chaos and confusion resulted before Parliament and his cabinet forced him to overturn the decree. Yoon now faces impeachment changes that will go to a vote in Seoul’s parliament on Wednesday. [SOURCE - Bloomberg] ...

Turbulence in Europe and the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is shaky Andrew Sheves Good morning. There are three big stories worth tracking today, but first, it’s worth pulling a few of these together. Comment The macro trend at the moment is increasing turbulence and weakness across Europe through a confluence of factors: internal political wrangling (France, below), economic difficulties (Germany), Russian hybrid warfare (telecoms sabotage, below), and the seeming undoing of the ‘color revolutions’ as eastern european countries drift back towards Moscow (e.g., Georgia). ...

Opposition advances in Syria, protests in Georgia and Romania, and Trudeau reacts to Trump tariff threats Andrew Sheves Good morning. There were several major events over the weekend worth keeping track of, but before we get to those, a quick seasonal health warning because this can be the most dangerous time of the year for a lot of organizations. Wait. Didn’t Andy Williams tell us this was The Most Wonderful Time of the Year? ...

Stability ratings and headlines plus some weekend long reads Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Just the ratings and headlines today as I digest Thursday’s feast. Don’t forget to scroll to the bottom for the long reads. Black Friday Sale Gift It’s the end of the year, and everyone is writing their ‘Top Risks of 2025,’ which means we’ll be hearing terms like poly-crisis and permacrisis far too much. ...

Thanksgiving edition 🦃 Andrew Sheves Good morning. We’re celebrating Thanksgiving so it’s just the data and ratings today, no news. A quick ask *There’s a poll at the bottom of the email and it would be incredibly useful if you could take 30 seconds to let us know how we’re doing. Good, bad, ugly? Just let us know. Thank you *🙏 Commodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)** $69.19 ...

Ceasefire in Lebanon and tension in Pakistan Andrew Sheves Good morning. (Reminder: Thursday and Friday’s SITREPS will only contain the stability ratings as we are observing Thanksgiving, aka Turkey Day .) In Pakistan, supporters of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan have been pushed out of central Islamabad by security forces, although they have not fully dispersed and thousands remain in the city. [SOURCE - BBC] Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a 60-day ceasefire, pausing the year-old conflict in Lebanon. [SOURCE - Bloomberg] ...

More Trump tariffs and huge protests in Islamabad Andrew Sheves Good morning. Three headlines for you. Citing the flow of drugs and migrants across the US border, President-elect Trump threatened additional tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China. These appear to be in addition to the blanket 10% tariffs Trump plans to impose on all imports and 60% on Chinese goods. [SOURCE - Bloomberg] In Pakistan, protestors demanding the release of former Prime Minister Imran Khan have reached the central D Chowk square in Islamabad. The situation is tense and fluid, and what happens next is uncertain but Khan has asked his supporters to occupy the center of Islamabad until their demands are met. The BBC has live coverage here. ...

Yemenis in Ukraine, election shock in Romania and Lebanon ceasefire rumors Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Monday. A quick scheduling note for Thanksgiving week. The Thursday and Friday editions of the SITREP will not include the headlines or market data. Country stability ratings and news summaries will be unchanged. Weekend Stories of Note President-elect Trump made several additional nominations to cabinet and senior advisor roles over the weekend. Politico has a handy cabinet tracker here to help keep track of nominees and their positions on key issues. ...

Africa round up plus the ICC issues arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Two headlines of note. The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leader Mohammed Deif. The ICC warrants accuse Netanyahu and Gallant of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Deif is also accused of crimes against humanity in connection with his role in the October 7th Hamas attacks on Israel. Deif is reported to have been killed in July but the ICC maintains that it cannot verify that. Similar warrants against Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar were dropped after their deaths. [SOURCE - Washington Post] ...