SITREP

EU Prepares Trade Retaliation Plan, Bedouins Threaten to Resume Syria Fighting, Iran Holds Nuclear Talks Friday Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇪🇺** EU Prepares Trade Retaliation Plan** EU envoys will meet this week to formulate measures responding to a possible no-deal scenario with Trump, whose tariff position has hardened ahead of the August 1 deadline. The US now wants near-universal tariffs above 10% on EU goods with fewer exemptions, up from the bloc’s hoped-for framework, as negotiations continue with limited progress. The EU has prepared €21 billion in immediate countermeasures targeting politically sensitive US states and an additional €72 billion list including Boeing aircraft, US cars and bourbon whiskey, while considering activating its anti-coercion instrument that could impose new taxes on US tech giants. More - Bloomberg ...

Iraq Shopping Mall Fire Kills 61, Israel Strikes Gaza Catholic Church, Weekend Diversions Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇮🇶** Iraq Shopping Mall Fire Kills 61** A fire at a week-old shopping center in Kut, Iraq killed 61 people with many still missing after an air conditioner explosion triggered the blaze. Survivors described being trapped as the fire spread rapidly through the mall, which lacked proper fire extinguishing systems according to witnesses who lost family members. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani ordered an immediate investigation as the tragedy highlights Iraq’s persistent safety standard problems, following similar deadly fires including a 2023 wedding party blaze that killed over 100 people and a 2021 hospital fire that claimed more than 90 lives. More - BBC ...

USAID Will Destroy Food for 30,000, US Announces Syria De-escalation Andrew Sheves 🇺🇸** USAID Will Destroy Food for 30,000 Kids** Nearly 500 tonnes of high-energy biscuits intended to feed 27,000 starving children in Afghanistan and Pakistan will be incinerated after expiring in a Dubai warehouse following Trump’s closure of USAID. Deputy Secretary of State Michael Rigas called the waste “a casualty of the shutdown of USAID,” which closed July 1, leaving over 60,000 tonnes of food aid stuck worldwide. The $793,000 worth of expired fortified wheat biscuits will cost an additional $100,000 to destroy, despite lawmakers warning officials in March about the potential waste as 319 million people face limited food access globally. More - Al Jazeera ...

Israel Bombs Syrian Forces, Philippines AI Disinformation Surge Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇸🇾** Israel Bombs Syrian Forces** Israel bombed Syrian government forces entering Druze city Suweida after deadly sectarian clashes killed at least 200 people since Sunday, with Prime Minister Netanyahu saying he ordered strikes to prevent their use “against the Druze.” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights accused government forces of summary executions of 19 Druze civilians and systematic looting after entering the city under a ceasefire agreement. The Trump administration reportedly asked Israel to cease strikes, while Syria condemned Israeli involvement as violations continue despite a declared ceasefire between Druze militias and Bedouin tribes. More - BBC ...

China’s Economy Beats Expectations, Trump Threatens Russia Tariffs, Druze-Bedouin Clashes Kill 99 in Syria Andrew Sheves Good morning, 🇨🇳 China’s Economy Beats Expectations China’s economy grew 5.2% in the second quarter, beating forecasts as strong factory output and exports to non-US markets offset weak domestic consumption. Industrial production surged 6.8% in June while retail sales disappointed at 4.8%, highlighting the persistent imbalance between strong supply and weak domestic demand. Despite a 24% slump in US shipments, overall exports rose as government subsidies and fiscal stimulus supported growth, providing Beijing breathing room ahead of potential tariff escalation when the current US trade truce ends in mid-August. More - Bloomberg ...

EU Tariff Cooperation Plans, Gaza Children Killed in Water Queue, Trump Promises Ukraine Patriots, Former Nigerian President Buhari Dies Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇪🇺** EU Plans Increased Cooperation With Tariff-Hit Nations** The EU is preparing to step up engagement with other countries hit by Trump’s tariffs, including potential coordination with Canada and Japan, as talks with the US remain stuck on cars and agriculture. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen extended suspension of €21 billion in countermeasures until August 1, while preparing €72 billion in additional penalties if negotiations fail. Goldman Sachs estimates Trump’s proposed 30% EU tariff would lower eurozone GDP by 1.2% through 2026, as the bloc seeks deals capped at 10% on agricultural exports while focusing talks on automotive tariffs. More - Bloomberg ...

Iran’s Uranium Buried, Not Destroyed, Saudis Breach OPEC+ Quota Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇮🇷** Iran’s Uranium Buried, Not Destroyed** A senior Israeli official said intelligence indicates much of Iran’s enriched uranium is buried at Isfahan and could potentially be recovered, though any attempt would likely be detected and prompt renewed Israeli strikes. The assessment contradicts Trump’s repeated claims that US strikes “totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities, while IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said parts of the targeted sites are “still standing.” Iran’s President Pezeshkian confirmed the facilities were “severely damaged” with no current access, though Israel believes the nuclear program was set back two years overall. More - BBC ...

Trump Announces Big Brazil, Copper and Pharma Tariffs, Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks Andrew Sheves 🇺🇸** Trump Announces Big Brazil, Copper and Pharma Tariffs** President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on Brazil over its prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, calling the coup attempt case a “witch hunt” in the most extreme example yet of weaponizing trade policy for unrelated demands. Brazil’s President Lula fired back saying his nation won’t be “tutored” and threatened reciprocal measures, while the real plummeted 2.9% against the dollar. Trump also announced 30% tariffs on Algeria, Libya, Iraq and Sri Lanka, plus floated 50% duties on copper products and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals if companies don’t shift production to the US within a year. More - Bloomberg ...

Israel Plans Mass Gaza Relocation, Tunisia Jails Opposition Leaders Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇵🇸** Israel Plans Mass Gaza Relocation** Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the military to prepare a plan to move all 2.1 million Palestinians in Gaza into a “humanitarian city” built on Rafah’s ruins, initially housing 600,000 people who would not be allowed to leave after security screening. An Israeli human rights lawyer condemned it as “an operational plan for a crime against humanity” involving population transfer in preparation for deportation. Netanyahu endorsed Trump’s proposal for the US to take over post-war Gaza and permanently resettle Palestinians elsewhere, while Arab states have categorically rejected any displacement as “ethnic cleansing.” More - BBC ...

Oil Steadies Despite Tariff, Red Sea Attacks, 11 Killed in Kenya Protests, Trump Extends Tariff Deadline Andrew Sheves Good morning, 🛢️ Oil Steadies Despite Tariff, Red Sea Attacks Oil steadied near $69 per barrel as traders focused on potential fallout from Trump’s new tariffs and escalating Red Sea attacks, with Brent holding gains after Monday’s 1.9% advance despite OPEC+ announcing larger-than-expected supply increases for August. A second vessel was targeted near Yemen hours after Iranian-backed Houthis claimed responsibility for an earlier ship attack, raising Middle East tensions despite the fragile Israel-Iran truce. Trump announced tariffs starting August 1 on Japan, South Korea and other partners but suggested negotiations remain possible, while diesel markets show tightness with US stockpiles at lowest seasonal levels since 1996. More - Bloomberg ...