Updates on Andrew Sheves

Business Continuity in a Nutshell

Wed, 02 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0000

I wrote this on a beautiful sunny morning last week, sitting on the Isle of Skye, enjoying the sun washing over the mountains with a fresh coffee and a copy of business continuity principles.

Different day, different highland view, but you get the idea

OK, so I enjoyed the sunrise, mountains, and coffee a little more than the business continuity guide, but it was nice to refamiliarize myself with business continuity management (BCM) again.

20 Years in the Making

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

💕 Happy Valentine’s Day 💕

It’s a slightly different intro today because I’ve some exciting news to share.

I know, I know. Every email you get starts with someone saying how excited they are: excited that you signed up for free coupons, excited that you joined an exclusive group of only 3,289,000 other professions, excited that you chose their firm to clean your windows, etc., etc.

I get it.

A Bird Flu Reminder to Keep Contingency Plans up to Date

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

A recent outbreak of bird flu has been detected in mammals raising concerns that a variant of the H5N1 virus could eventually infect humans. The chances of this are slim but it’s a good reminder to review plans nevertheless. Meanwhile, the metrics are a mix of extremes: wheat and iron and steel are at some of their highest prices for the 90-day period, while shipping and the VIX are at their lowest. Oil is relatively low but has been fluctuating recently.

A Mid-January reality check and why you need to pay attention to sovereign debt

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

ding! You’ve got mail…. 📬

Welcome to the first Daily SITREP! No more anxiously waiting between updates: now you’ll be getting the metrics and critical events delivered to your inbox daily, Monday – Friday.

Please keep the feedback coming – that way, I can make this as useful as possible (and not waste valuable space in your inbox).

Yesterday was Blue Monday when the reality of the New Year sets in: whatever excitement there was around the holidays has faded, the decorations are back in the attic, and we’ve all gotten used to writing ‘2023’ on our checks. And there was a similar feeling with the key metrics: movements are relatively gentle and valuations seem to be stabilizing for the moment as things settle into the New year. Unfortunately, some of this stability comes from pretty grim contributing factors – there’s no let up in Russia’s attacks on Ukraine, for example – and the results are no less pleasant as the cost of living bites and layoffs continue. Nevertheless, this is a moment of relative calm which should be appreciated. And a bit like your New Year’s resolutions, it’s worth reviewing any big plans you made for your organization in early January to see if those are still great ideas now the enthusiasm has ebbed a little.

A New Gas Deal in Libya, Egypt’s Looming Challenges, and Fiddly Fingers Caused the NYSE’s Wild Tuesday

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

ENI is about to sign a new gas deal with Libya which is good news but adds a fraction of what the EU needs. Fiddly fingers (that’s a technical term – look it up) caused Tuesday’s wild opening on the NYSE while it was Microsoft’s turn on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, several recent stories about Egypt bring the combined challenges of what prices, inflation and sovereign debt info focus. These same conditions exist in many countries so the stories are worth reading to get a sense of what’s going on in frontier markets.

America defaults (kind of), using these metrics, and the value of delaying your morning cup of Joe.

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

America hit the debt limit yesterday: that means no more borrowing is possible until the debt ceiling is lifted. The government will keep running and paying the bills for a few months because funds have already been appropriated or because the extraordinary measures introduced by Treasury Secretary Yellen provide additional financial flexibility.

The political back and forth has begun: House Republicans are vowing to force the White House to make tough choices on spending cuts while the Biden administration has refused to negotiate, calling this “economic vandalism”.

Balloons, Taiwan and Made in ChiMexico: A Chinese Threefor

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

The extent of yesterday’s earthquake in Turkey and Syria is becoming clear and many difficult days of search, rescue and recovery lie ahead. Although tragic, something like this is outside the scope of this newsletter and I can’t do justice to such a fast-moving event so I won’t be continuing to cover the response unless there is a significant development. (As a reminder, there are many reputable organizations providing relief in the affected areas and they would appreciate your support if possible but do check the credentials of any organization before donating.)

Bumps Ahead as The Transition to Renewables Speeds Up

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

A few articles on the transition to renewable energy I found this week are worth a read.

The first explains why crossing 5% usage is the ‘tipping point’ for mass adoption and what the current uptake looks like in different countries, and for different technologies. Read ‘Clean Energy Has a Tipping Point, and 87 Countries Have Reached It’ from Bloomberg here.

The others concern the minerals we need to create the hardware and infrastructure needed to sustain this switch. This all comes down to mining enormous tracts of land to get at the minerals needed to make solar panels, EV engine components, and batteries. Congo and Indonesia are two places developing new mining projects at the moment, but China dominates the entire sector as either a source of rare earth minerals or as the backer of these enormous projects. As the US dominates the oil and gas sector, China now dominates the rare earth sector.

China’s population is shrinking and moving. Why ‘recyclable’ doesn’t mean what you think it means.

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

The newly released 2021 Chinese census showed a surprising drop in population for the first time in 60 years which, while not unexpected, was earlier than many had expected. Meanwhile, millions in Asia are preparing to celebrate the Lunar New Year which for many in China, means it’s the first chance to see family in years now that COVID restrictions have lifted. Sadly, that may be a bittersweet reunion for some as elderly, rural relatives may be exposed to COVID for the first time. However, the end of the celebrations in February will be the start of the big economic reopening.

DCDR Research – Tuning Out The Noise

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

DCDR research is a succinct, useable data feed that cuts through the noise to give you the critical information you need to make data-driven decisions. The project is the outcome of over 15 years work in this area as both an analyst and decision-maker.

The intent: to give leaders a set of critical metrics in an easy-to-understand format to help speed up and simplify their decision-making.

The full white paper and methodology will be published in December 2022 and you can request early access to the reports here.

DCDR Research: User’s Guide DRAFT

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

We all want better information for our risk analysis (well, at least everything reading articles like this does) and DCDR Research is building a data feed to get you those metrics. But even when you’ve got that data, there’s often one other problem.

How to use it?

Not to worry. Here’s a guide on how to use these reports specifically and if you want some more general background on using metrics in your risk assessments, take a look at these blog posts.

Dragnet Edition: Just the Facts

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

I had to take a personal day on Tuesday, so it’s just Chad with the metrics today. Apologies, and I’ll be back with a proper SITREP tomorrow.

On to the numbers

(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)

Relative Values (90-Days)

Turn your phone for a better view ⟳

ESG Compliance, a Drop in Ransomware Attacks, and a Chad’s on a Spa Day 🤖

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

There were a few interesting pieces of news on ESG compliance and regulations that are worth keeping an eye on. Many of these rules are yet to come into force, but companies should start thinking about how they will meet these requirements (and who will take the lead). Also, there’s some positive news on the ransomware front.

Unfortunately, the metrics didn’t update properly today. I’ve sent Chad (the robot who manages the data) off for a spa day while I fix things, and I apologize that there aren’t any numbers today.

ESG is Under Attack: So What?

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

GM and welcome to the ‘So What’ briefing: a shot of additional angst to go with your morning chai latte macchiato.

Let’s dive in

1,200 Words, reading time 5 mins 6 secs

Nutritional information

Today’s post contains hints of regulation

ESG under attack as ‘woke’ capital

In a lot of recent coverage, ESG (environmental, social & governance) is being termed ‘woke’ capitalism by both supporters and detractors of the investment class. This perception further strengthens the sense that, rather than measuring how well a firm or fund performs in some important non-operational ways, ESG is nothing more than a form of virtue signaling and/or a scam.

Famine, Oil Production Forecasts, and Custom Metrics

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Some quick updates today plus I’m sharing an example of the personalized SITREPS I announced yesterday.

Famine in the Horn of Africa and North Korea

Wheat and grain prices remain high making many food staples more expensive around the world but there are also many who are living in famine or near-famine conditions (Axios). The Horn of Africa is undergoing another period of drought following its fifth failed rainy season. This places millions in Somalia, Eastern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya in severe danger of acute malnutrition. (UNICEF)

For Economies “This Is Normal”, the WEF’s 2023 Risk Forecast, Holocaust Remembrance Day.

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

There’s some macroeconomic analysis that’s worth your time today (or over the weekend), plus a belated recommendation to read the WEF’s Global Risk Report if you haven’t already. Today is Holocaust Remembrance Day.

And thanks to everyone who voted on the layout. The overwhelming response was that you prefer having the analysis first so we’ll stick with this format and starting next week, I’m going to trim the commentary around the metrics unless there’s a big event or change. That should streamline things even more

Hundreds Dead after Turkey and Syria Earthquake, plus Executive Liability in the US.

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

A sad morning.

The death toll in Turkey and Syria following Monday’s terrible earthquake is rising and the latest death toll at the time of writing was over 1,000 but this number has been rising steadily all morning. The full toll will be many times higher while thousands more are injured or without shelter and power. The recovery and aid operations will be complex and likely hampered by political and security considerations.

Lunar New Year, Tanks to Ukraine (or not), and An Election Switcheroo in Turkey.

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Welcome to the upside-down edition of the Daily SITREP

Don’t worry, it’s not as scary as the Upside Down. Image © Stra Things / Netflix

I like numbers. You like numbers. We all like numbers. (If you don’t…)

But the danger of writing a daily briefing that leads with the metrics is that it can feel like a market tracker (this isn’t) and you can get a little ‘number blind’. You also might get sidetracked on your way to the updates which are hopefully flagging what you really need to pay attention to (that would be bad).

Oil Cuts (Meh…), WhatsApp and UFOs

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Surprisingly, markets quickly shrugged off Moscow’s Friday announcement that Russia would cut oil production by half a million barrels per day (bpd), suggesting that Russia’s influence on oil markets is much diminished.

Meanwhile, two stories on regulation are good reminders that rules should be followed but also that the communication of these rules can be complicated and subtleties can be lost. Unfortunately, ‘we were confused by your messaging’ isn’t an excuse for non-compliance, so it falls to leaders to ensure that staff understand, and meet, obligations.

Positive Vibes from DC, Negative Vibes in Pristina and US Egg Smugglers.

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

The readout after Wednesday’s meeting between Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy was positive, giving some hope for smoother-than-anticipated negotiations around the debt ceiling. The Fed continued to raise rates but less quickly, which markets took as a sign that the worst was over. However, Mardi Gras is still three weeks away – and landing the US economy even farther off – so shouts of ‘laissez les bons temps rouler’ from Wall Street are premature. Finally, Kosovo is one of many seemingly small disputes that can cause oversized headaches and is therefore worth keeping an eye on.

Rapid-Fire Friday: Geopolitics Issue

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

🌐 A rapid-fire roundup of some of the big geopolitical issues today: Tunisia, the Turkey / Syria earthquake, Russian sanctions, the Nigerian Election, and Israel-Palestine.

The Cyprus election run-off is this weekend and America will be watching a football game while eating a record number of nachos and wings.

See you on Monday!

🇹🇳 Tunisia

There have been no steps to address the lack of a decisive outcome in the election runoff that took place two weeks ago despite protests and complaints that the government of President Saied is illegitimate. Instead, the President has sanctioned a crackdown on the opposition, increasing the number arrested or charged with frivolous offenses and is describing the opposition on the terms of a “cancer” on the country.

Shipping Containers Are Very Expensive: So What?

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

GM and welcome to So What: a fresh perspective on an emerging risk that will add to your grey hairs.

Let’s dive in.

839 words – 3 mins, 31 seconds read time

TL;DR

Container prices remain at record highsThis affects global shipping of all goods with an impact on supply chains and pricesThis looks set to continue through 2022 and maybe into 2023 so companies should plan accordingly.This also reinforces the dangers of globalization and just-in-time inventory which need to be reduced.

Some news from Davos while the metrics remain relatively quiet. Plus giant space lasers.

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

First, a clarification

**In yesterday’s piece on sovereign debt, I said that Secretary Janet Yellen had announced that the US would hit the debt ceiling in early June and she was implementing special measures to help manage that process.

In fact, Secretary Yellen said that the US will probably hit the ceiling around January 19 (A.K.A tomorrow!) but that the “extraordinary measures [will] prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations”. These measures can be sustained until early June, after which it is unclear exactly when the US will run out of cash, although many economists believe that this will happen by August.

Tanks to Ukraine, a Mini-Flash Crash (maybe), and New ECB Climate Metrics. Plus, treehouses=terrorism?

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

It’s a bite-sized issue as there’s a lot to share today. Tanks are heading to Ukraine, the ECB has issued new climate metrics and the NYSE had some wild swings on Tuesday. (Oh, and Chad’s fully refreshed after his spa day so the metrics are back. )

Feedback so far is that quite a few folks seem to prefer having the commentary first but please use the poll to let me know what you think.

The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act Just Came Into Effect: So what?

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

GM and welcome to So What: your daily snippet of risky goodness that adds one extra headache to your to-do list. (But you’ll read it right away tomorrow anyway.)

Let’s dive in.

1685 words – 6 mins, 30 seconds read time

TL;DR

The UFLPA addresses US concerns about the use of the Uyghur as forced labor in China.Similar EU legislation is likely in the near future.UFLPA places a high burden on firms importing goods and materials from China to prove that the imports have not originated from facilities or regions using forced labor.The Act will impact firms importing goods and materials from China into the US and manufacturers who reply upon these items.Both importers and those who have Chinese goods in their supply chains should audit their supply chains and prepare for and adapt to any disruption.Over the mid-to-long term, companies should reduce their dependence upon goods and materials of Chinese origin and look for other parts of their supply chain that may be linked to forced labor.It places a high burden on firms importing goods and materials from China to prove that the imports have not originated from facilities or regions using forced labor.The Act will impact firms importing goods and materials from China into the US and manufacturers who reply upon these items.

Ukraine and Russia Produce Over 1/3 of the World’s Grains. So what?

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

GM and welcome to So What: your snippet of risky goodness that (in this case) will bum you out before breakfast (you are reading this before breakfast, right?)

Let’s dive in.

1,200 words, 4:48 reading time

1/5 of the world’s grains originate from Ukraine and Russia, meaning the Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing a significant interruption to global food supplies. In addition to the detrimental effects on food security, this may also cause instability in some countries. Here’s why.

Ukraine Anniversary Offensive, Nigerian Elections, plus custom reports.

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Two quick updates today plus the customized risk / opportunity ratings.

Click here to try out customized reports.

Russia on the Offense Prior to February 24

Russia appears to be building up for a concentrated offensive in Ukraine to coincide with next week’s one-year anniversary of its invasion. Additional missile strikes took place on Thursday morning and Russian forces appear to be making progress in taking the city of Bakhmut which would put them within striking distance of other major cities in the northwest Donetsk region. See Reuters for more.

Uncertainty in Tunisia, Czechs reject eastward turn, Middle East Attacks and China’s COVID wave ‘coming to an end’

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Tunisia’s second-round voting had a similarly low turnout as the first round making it unclear what will happen next. Recent attacks in Israel, Palestine, and Iran signal a period of heightened tension that feels poised to boil over.

Meanwhile, Czech voters clearly returned formed NATO General Pavel with 58% of the vote, signaling their preference to remain aligned with the West. On a (hopefully) positive note, China’s CDC declared that the current wave of COVID infections was coming to an end.

US Debt Fight Round 1, Unease in Pakistan, and How Reliable is Carbon Offset Reporting?

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

The real work to avoid a US deficit starts today and will give us a sense of how the stage of the drama will unfold. A terrible attack in Pakistan left 100 dead and ratches up tension.

Meanwhile, reports of inaccuracies in one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas crediting programs are a good reminder to take care and conduct your due diligence. Otherwise, you might find you’re making misleading statements to regulators and shareholders which (checks notes) is bad.

US Deficit Timeline Update, More Arrests in Tunisia and a New Prime Minister in Moldova

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Monday is President’s Day so there’s no SITREP and then you’ll see a difference in the content and frequency of the free emails as the PRO plans kick in. So, starting Tuesday:

PRO subscribers get the daily updates and customized risk metrics.General subscribers get the Friday round up only.

You can try the PRO plan for free here. (And if you have any questions on what you get in the PRO plan, and how the customization works, please just hit reply and I’ll send you more information.)

We Have Too Much Stuff

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

I got sucked into a supply chain vortex on Bloomberg this morning and did some digging around so you don’t have to.

It turns out the world over-ordered during COVID and now, some supply chains are full of surplus goods and materials. This could be a great opportunity for some but signals big problems for others.

However, it’s also a good reminder of why you need to take a historic view in your planning, something that toilet paper manufacturers understood, but Peleton didn’t.

Nigerians Vote and a South Pacific Remake

Thu, 23 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

🇳🇬 Nigerians Vote

Nigerians will elect their new president and parliament this weekend with third-party candidate Peter Obi leading recent polls (ANAP Foundation). Obi has a strong following amongst younger Nigerians and a win would signal a break from some of the traditional political power structures in the country. However, there is still a significant margin for error in the polls and all three leading candidates have strong bases of support so a close election and run-off are still a significant possibility.

ESG is Under Attack: So What?

Mon, 03 Oct 2022 00:00:00 +0000

ESG under attack as ‘woke’ capital

This post originally appeared in the ‘So What’ newsletter on July 1, 2022

DCDR Update – mid-February 2018

Mon, 19 Feb 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Opportunity overload continues to be the biggest threat to DCDR right now: I keep finding myself being seduced by thoughts of what the app could do, rather than what the core feature set should be. Luckily, I am getting good advice from Matt and from the several thousands of hours of podcasts and interviews I have consumed. As usual, the problem isn’t getting the right advice. Following the advice, however, is always more difficult. I am finding Paul Graham’s advice particularly useful and his ‘Startups in 13 Sentences‘ essay has become my roadmap.